Abstract: Objective To explore the factors influencing intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing abdominal surgery for digestive system, and to develop a risk prediction model and access its validity. Methods A total of 395 patients undergoing abdominal surgery for digestive system in our hospital from December 2021 to July 2022 were enrolled and allocated into hypothermia group （n=242）and non-hypothermia group（n=153） based on whether hypothermia occurred. The factors influencing intraoperative hypothermia were determined by logistic regression, and a risk prediction model was developed and plotted in a nomogramm, and the discrimination, calibration and clinical validity of the model were assessed. Result Four factors of the cleanliness of operating room, operation grade, anesthesia time and basic body temperature at the beginning of the operation were included in the model. When the best cut-off value of the model was 0.477, the area under the ROC curve was 0.901 with the sensitivity and the specificity of 0.793 and 0.830 respectively while the Youden index 0.623,showing that the prediction model was well differentiated. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ²=3.938, P=0.863, indicating that prediction model was well calibrated. Decision curve analysis showed that the model has clinical effectiveness. Conclusion The constructed risk prediction model is of high value in predicting the occurrence of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing abdominal surgery of digestive system. It provides reference for surgical team to take timely measures to prevent hypothermia for high-risk patients.

Key words: hypothermia, surgery of digestive system, influencing factor, risk prediction, nursing in operating room