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J4  2014, Vol. 11 Issue (8): 1143-    DOI:
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新兴电子商务对欠发达地区 工业化发展的影响机理研究
汤盼盼,吴亮
贵州师范大学经济与管理学院
A Research on the Effect Mechanism of New Electronic Commerce to Theunderdeveloped Areas of China
TANG Panpan,WU Liang
Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, China

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摘要 建立动力模型,运用系统动力学原理对电子商务在促进工业发展过程中的各个因素进行讨论, 构建因果回路图和系统流图,分析电子商务对工业发展的影响机理。基于灰色系统理论,收集了2005年以来贵州规模以上工业总产值变动数据,并对其变化趋势进行了预测。研究表明,在电子商务发展推动下,实际产值比预测产值要高,验证了电子商务对欠发达地区工业发展的促进作用;由此,提出在新兴电子商务环境下促进工业协调发展的建议。
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关键词 电子商务动力模型灰色预测工业发展    
Abstract:Relying on informationization to promote industrialization that boosts informationization is one of the choices for economic growth. Recently, in the context of steady flow of new technology of electronic commerce and implementation of industrialization in underdeveloped areas of China, effective mechanisms of electronic commerce to the industrial development plays an important role in the promotion of industrialization in less developed areas of China. Based on dynamic model, the factors are explored to illustrate how electronic commerce promotes the industrial development. Furtherthe causal loop diagrams and systematic diagrams are depicted to analyze the influencing mechanisms of electronic commerce to the industrial development. The changing data of total industrial outputs of scaled industries were collected to,predict the changing trend to the total industrial outputs based on grey theory. The results suggest that the economies’ actual outputs are larger than predicted with the promotion of electronic commerce, which confirms the positive role of ecommerce in promoting industrial development for underdeveloped regions.Finally, some suggestions are provided to promote the industrial development in the context of new development of electronic commerce.
Key wordsecommerce    dynamic model    gray system theory    industrial development   
收稿日期: 2013-12-17     
基金资助:国家社会科学基金资助项目(12BXW028);贵州省教育厅人文社会科学项目(12SSD005)
通讯作者: 吴亮(1969~),男,贵州威宁人。贵州师范大学(贵阳市550001)经济与管理学院教授 。研究方向为新兴电子商务、商务智能与营销创新。     E-mail: wuliangmail@yeah.net
引用本文:   
汤盼盼,吴亮. 新兴电子商务对欠发达地区 工业化发展的影响机理研究[J]. J4, 2014, 11(8): 1143-. TANG Panpan,WU Liang. A Research on the Effect Mechanism of New Electronic Commerce to Theunderdeveloped Areas of China . J4, 2014, 11(8): 1143-.
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