护理学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 73-78.doi: 10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2024.10.073
• ※老年护理 • 上一篇
老年人运动认知功能减退综合征风险预测模型的构建与验证
邬馨益, 徐林燕, 陈卓琦, 朱徐乐, 赵磊
- 丽水学院 医学院,浙江 丽水 323000
摘要： 目的 分析老年人发生运动认知功能减退综合征的危险因素,构建并验证风险预测模型。方法 2022年7—11月,采用多阶段与方便抽样相结合的抽样法选取浙江省5个城市的1 284名老年人作为研究对象。利用Logistic回归筛选出独立危险因素并构建列线图预测模型,以ROC曲线下面积及C统计量评估预测模型的区分度,采用校准曲线和决策曲线验证模型的准确度。结果 睡眠质量差、营养不良、低体力活动水平、有抑郁症状、肌量减少、有跌倒史、糖尿病和肥胖是影响老年人发生运动认知功能减退综合征的危险因素。基于Logistic回归构建列线图预测模型,ROC曲线下面积为0.916,C-index为0.901且列线图校准曲线斜率接近1,决策曲线显示预测模型的临床性能较高。结论 本研究基于睡眠质量差、营养不良、低体力活动水平、有抑郁症状、肌量减少、有跌倒史、糖尿病、肥胖8个独立危险因素构建的老年人运动认知功能减退综合征风险预测模型具有良好效能,可为医护人员提供筛选高风险人群的工具,及时针对靶点进行个性化干预。
中图分类号:
- R473.59
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