Study on the Contagion Effect of Risk in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets Based on Extreme Value Theory
LIN Yu, TAN Bin, WEI Yu, HUANG De-Shi
1.Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu， China； 2. China West Normal University, Nanchong, Sichuan, China; 3.Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu， China
This paper applies ARMA(1,1)GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(1,1)GJR(1,1) to constructing standardized residuals series based on the loss series of closed indices of stock markets, uses EVT to model extreme tails of standardized residuals and estimate dynamic extreme VaR based on stochastic volatility model. The paper finally tests contagion effect of dynamic extreme VaR series. Our results show that there exists contagion effect between dynamic extreme VaR of the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market and the contagion of dynamic extreme risk is stronger form Shanghai stock market to Shenzhen than the contagion from Shenzhen to Shanghai.
林宇, 谭斌, 魏宇, 黄登仕. 基于极值理论的沪深股市风险传染性研究[J]. J4, 2010, 7(9): 1391-.
LIN Yu, TAN Bin, WEI Yu, HUANG De-Shi. Study on the Contagion Effect of Risk in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets Based on Extreme Value Theory. J4, 2010, 7(9): 1391-.
2010, Vol. 7 
