This paper considers M2 as money supply index. Based on the volatility and distributions of returns, it tests the three varieties of copper, aluminum and rubber in Shanghai Futures Market by constructing the GARCH-GED model and gets three volatility serials. Based on the multi-scale analysis, the volatility serials can be decomposed by the wavelet of db(4) and low frequency data can be gained to reflect the long trend of price volatility. The empirical results show that the growth of money supply can prick up the volatility of futures market by the measure of Granger cause test between low frequency data and M2 growth. This also proves that liquidity surplus has marked effects to futures market.
沈虹, 何建敏, 胡小平, 赵伟雄. 多尺度GARCH模型研究货币增长对期货价格波动的影响[J]. J4, 2010, 7(2): 263-.
SHEN Hong, HE Jian-Min, HU Xiao-Ping, ZHAO Wei-Xiong. The Influence of Monetary Increase on Futures Market Based on Multi-scale GARCH-GED Model. J4, 2010, 7(2): 263-.