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| Research on the Timing of Economic Growth Driven by Science and Technology Innovation in China Based on the Boom State |
| YANG Wu，YANG Miao |
| University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China |
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Abstract On the basis of the theory of the economic development cycle in the application of Schumpeter’s innovation cycle, this study investigates the relationship between the technological innovation boom index (TCI) and the economic prosperity index (ECI), and the practical situation of economic growth driven by science and technology innovation in China is discussed. The delay relationship between ECI and TCI is revealed by using the distributed lag model; using the time varying coefficient model of state space to reveal the elasticity changes of economic growth driven by science and technology innovation; according to the normalization method to calculate the index of economic growth driven by science and technology innovation of China. It is found that the driving force of the economic boom index of the current economic index is the largest when the technology innovation climate index is lagging behind the four periods; The year of 2003 and 1999, respectively, are China’s economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation momentum of the current effect and the expected effect of the strength comparison watershed；There is a nonlinear interaction relationship between science and technology innovation and economic growth.
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Received: 14 March 2016
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2017, Vol. 14 
