以质量求发展,以服务铸品牌

Journal of Nursing ›› 2023, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (23): 1-5.doi: 10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2023.23.001

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Construction of prediction scoring model for lactation risk of mothers experiencing premature birth: a Meta-analysis

SUN Fei1, LIU Min2a, HU Shan-shan2a, WU Lei2b, LIU Jun2b, LI Ping2c   

  1. 1. Wuxi School of Medicine, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China;
    2a. Dept. of Nursing Administration; 2b. Dept. of Obstetrics; 2c.Dept. of Neonatology, Wuxi Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Wuxi 214002, China
  • Received:2023-07-15 Online:2023-12-10 Published:2024-01-09

Abstract: Objective To construct and verify the prediction scoring model for lactation risk of mothers experiencing premature birth, and provide reference for early identification of risk group. Methods Meta-analysis was used to analyze the factors of lactation risk in mothers of premature infants, and the model was established using the natural logarithm of the overall risk level for each risk factor as the coefficient, and the natural logarithm of the ratio between the failure rate and non-failure rate of lactation among mothers of preterm infants as the model coefficient. The risk factors were then assigned scores based on their respective coefficient values to construct the model. The data of 112 mothers experiencing premature birth from March to September, 2022 were collected, and the predictive performance of the model was analyzed. Results The model was constructed with logit(P)=-0.072+0.389 age+0.452 gestational hypertension+1.008 gestational diabetes+0.434 postpartum depression+0.538 lactation phase II start-up delay+0.607 daily milking frequency+0.515 milk opening time+0.445 lack of sleep. The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.900 (95%CI: 0.841~0.958); the Jordan index 0.717, and the critical value 2.070. The probability value of the model was 88.8%, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.889 and 0.828 respectively. The verification results of the model showed that the score ranged from 0 to 113, and a score above 55.5 indicated a high risk of lactation. The area under ROC curve was 0.900 (95%CI:0.842~0.958), and the Jordan index 0.717, with the sensitivity and specificity of 0.889 and 0.828. The positive predictive value was 82.8%, and the negative predictive value 82.8%. Conclusion The prediction scoring model of lactation risk of mothers experiencing premature birth based on meta-analysis has good prediction efficiency, and can be used for lactation screening of premature mothers and establishment of risk groups.

Key words: lactation establishment, prediction model, risk scoring, Meta analysis, risk factor, breastfeeding

CLC Number: 

  • R473.71
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