以2009~2022年中国A股制造业上市公司为样本，采用倾向得分匹配、双重差分及三重差分方法，系统评估了《中国制造2025》政策的创新效应及其异质性。研究发现：该政策显著提升了企业创新投入、产出与质量，且对技术追随型企业具有更强的边际激励，呈现“扶弱提质”特征。机制分析表明，资源支持与研发效率提升是政策促进技术追赶的重要路径。进一步研究发现，政策效应存在显著的异质性边界：在企业层面，政策对小规模企业体现为“扶弱”，对具备强吸收能力的大规模追随者则体现为“提质”；在产业层面，政策在技术密集型行业效果最佳，但在资本密集型行业可能引发对追随者的挤出效应；在区域层面，良好的创新环境对政策效果具有正向调节作用。经稳健性检验后以上结论仍成立。政策在初期缩小了技术差距，但长期仍面临创新质量分化反弹的挑战。

This paper evaluates the innovation effects and heterogeneity of the“Made in China 2025”policy using data from Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2009~2022 and using propensity score matching, difference-in-differences, and triple-differences methods. Our findings indicate that the policy significantly enhanced firm’s innovation input, output, and quality. Critically, it exhibits a “pro-weakness and quality-enhancing” characteristic by providing stronger marginal incentives to technology followers. We identify resource support and R&D efficiency as key transmission mechanisms. We further uncover significant boundary conditions for the policy’s effectiveness: at the firm level, its effect varies with firm size and absorptive capacity; at the industry level, it is most potent in technology-intensive sectors but may crowd out followers in capital-intensive ones; and at the regional level, it is amplified by a favorable innovation environment. These results hold after robustness checks. Despite its initial success in narrowing the technology gap, the policy’s long-term impact is challenged by a potential rebound in innovation quality divergence.