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J4  2004, Vol. 1 Issue (1): 62-    DOI:
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A Model for Scenario Analysis of China's Energy Requirement and Energy Intensity and Its Applications
 LIANG Qiao-Mei, WEI Yi-Ming, FAN Ying, Norio Okada
Instiutte of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,China

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Abstract  

This paper introduced the rationale of applying input output method and scenario analysis to project energy requirements and energy intensity; and set up the general framework of a model for scenario analysis of energy requirements and energy intensity, based on input output method. According to the model, a set of scenarios were developed by introducing step by step the major impact factor of energy requirements in China's economy and society; the energy requirements and energy intensity of year 2010 and year 2020 were projected, using the data of year 1997; the impact of the perceived changes in the economy and society on energy requirements and energy intensity were quantitatively analyzed; some related conclusions were attained and some corresponding policy suggestions were proposed.

Key wordsenergy requirements      energy intensity      scenario analysis      input output model     
Received: 10 June 2004     
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LIANG Qiao-Mei
WEI Yi-Ming
FAN Ying
Norio Okada
Cite this article:   
LIANG Qiao-Mei,WEI Yi-Ming,FAN Ying等. A Model for Scenario Analysis of China's Energy Requirement and Energy Intensity and Its Applications[J]. J4, 2004, 1(1): 62-.
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http://manu68.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_glxb/EN/     OR     http://manu68.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_glxb/EN/Y2004/V1/I1/62
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