Taking the medicine manufacturing industry as an example and using non-paired sample, the corporate financial distress was evaluated dynamically by Logistic discrete time hazard model. The results show Sigma of company's stock returns, ownership concentration, company's size and assets-liabilities ratio are significantly related to financial distress risk. It is seen that in order to achieve a high and appropriate correct classification rate, the cutoff should be selected by trading off type Ⅰerror cost and the typeⅡerror cost. By comparing the distressed company group with the healthy company group, it is found that there exit significant difference in the dynamic behavior of survival rate and hazard rate. This video demonstrating method can be used to predict “the likely time to distress”.
杨广青, 邓晓岚. 公司经营困境风险的动态评价模型研究[J]. J4, 2007, 4(6): 767-.
YANG Guang-Qing, DENG Xiao-Lan. Dynamic Model for Evaluating Corporate Business Distress Risk. J4, 2007, 4(6): 767-.