衰退期产品赊销动态决策优化模型及仿真

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摘要针对赊销活动，考虑商机灭失的可能性、不完全信息条件下有效信息获取量的测定以及赊销对总收益的影响等，建立了赊销收益模型，并结合最优停止规则，研究建立衰退期产品赊销动态决策优化模型。仿真结果显示，以上因素的考虑使得赊销的总体收益估测更加完善和切合实际，有助于企业掌握最佳的决策时机。

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关键词 ：不完全信息, 赊销, 收益估测, 最优停时, 动态决策

Abstract：Based on the possibility of the loss of business opportunities, the measurement of acquisition of effective information on the condition of incomplete information and account sales impact on total profits, this article establishes the model of account sale profits. Meanwhile, combining with the optimal stopping rule, the article studies and establishes dynamic decision optimization model of products in their declining periods of life. The simulation results show that the total profit evaluations are more perfect and practical by taking account of the above factors, thus facilitates the grasping of the best decision time for enterprises.

Key words： incomplete information account sale profit evaluation optimal stopping time dynamic decision

收稿日期: 2012-07-05

基金资助:河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2013207004)

通讯作者: 孙庆文(1968~)，男，河北邢台人。河北经贸大学(石家庄市050061)工商管理学院副院长，教授，博士。研究方向为投资决策、风险识别与控制。 E-mail: qw_sun@263.net

引用本文:

孙庆文,张志艳,栾晓慧. 衰退期产品赊销动态决策优化模型及仿真[J]. J4, 2014, 11(3): 402-. SUN Qingwen,ZHANG Zhiyan,LUAN Xiaohui. Model and Simulation of Account Sale Dynamic Decision Optimization of Products in Their Declining Periods of Life. J4, 2014, 11(3): 402-.

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http://manu68.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_glxb/CN/ 或 http://manu68.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_glxb/CN/Y2014/V11/I3/402