以各城市公共数据平台逐步开放为准自然实验，实证检验公共数据开放对分析师盈利预测质量的影响。研究发现，公共数据开放会显著降低分析师的盈利预测偏差与预测分歧，进而改善盈利预测质量。机制检验表明，公共数据开放既可通过“信息效应”增加分析师报告中前瞻性表达和财务类信息，还能通过“监督效应”吸引更多分析师跟踪并抑制公司盈余管理。进一步地，上述效应在数据开放的充分性或相关性较高的样本中更为明显；公共数据开放对盈利预测质量的改善效果在非明星分析师、公司信息透明度较差以及行业数字技术强度较低时更加显著。

Using the gradual opening of municipal public data platforms across various cities as a quasi-natural experiment, this study empirically examines the impact of public data opening on the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts. The findings reveal that public data opening significantly reduces analysts’ earnings forecast errors and dispersion, thereby improving the quality of earnings forecasts. Mechanism tests indicate that public data opening enhances the quality of forecasts through both the “information effect”, which increases forward-looking statements and financial information in analyst reports, and the “monitoring effect”, which attracts greater analyst coverage and curbs corporate earnings management. Furthermore, this effect is more pronounced in samples where data openness is more comprehensive or relevant. The improvement in earnings forecast quality due to public data opening is more significant for forecasts made by non-star analysts, companies with lower information transparency, and industries with lower digital technology intensity.