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| Research on Bullwhip Effect Based on Demand Forecast with Kalman Filter |
| CHEN Jiali，GUO Chunxiang |
| Sichuan University, Chengdu, China |
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Abstract The distortion of demand information is the root of the bullwhip effect, and the key to improving the bullwhip effect is to select appropriate demand prediction technology. Kalman Filter is often used for the prediction of non-stationary demand processes because of its dynamic updating and no need to store a lot of historical data. Thus, the demand forecast model was obtained based on the Kalman Filter equation, and the bullwhip effect was measured at different lead time. Then the influence of the lead time and model parameters on the bullwhip effect was studied. The results showed that the longer the lead time, the stronger the bullwhip effect; In most cases, the bullwhip effect can be avoided by Kalman Filter demand forecast when lead time was 2; When the lead time was greater than 2, the bullwhip effect with no promotion activity was less than that with some promotion activities for products in the same life cycle state, but the degree of promotion had no significant effect on the bullwhip effect.
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Received: 30 November 2018
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