Abstract: Objective To explore the risk factors affecting postoperative indwelling time of drainage tube of breast cancer patients and establish a risk prediction model. Methods We collected basic clinical data of 200 patients undergoing breast cancer surgery under general anesthesia from May 2018 to April 2019 in a tertiary grade-A hospital. Univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to screen out the risk factors affecting postoperative indwelling time of drainage tube, and a logistic regression prediction model was established. The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was used to test the goodness of fit of the established prediction model, and the area under the ROC curve was used to test the prediction effect of the model. Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed BMI (OR=1.337), breast cancer surgical method (OR=4.527), axillary lymph node surgical method (OR=3.483), negative pressure drainage (OR=4.518), underlying disease (OR=6.170) and complications (OR=2.846) were risk factors for the retention of drainage tube after breast cancer surgery. The Hosmer and Lemeshow test indicated that the model fit was (χ²=10.539, P=0.229). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.842 with a sensitivity of 0.815 and a specificity of 0.750, and the Youden index was 0.565. Conclusion BMI, breast cancer surgical method, axillary lymph node surgical method, one-time negative pressure drainage, basic diseases and complications are independent risk factors for the indwelling time of patients with postoperative drainage. The predictive model established in this study has a high value, which provides reference for the management of postoperative drainage tube retention time in breast cancer patients.

Key words: breast cancer, drainage tube indwelling time, risk factor, risk prediction