On the basis of the current related research results, under the hypotheses condition that the senior managers of listed companies are overconfident, this paper studies the effect mechanism of the senior managers’ overconfident psychological preference on the dividend payout policy of firms by setting up an appropriate mathematical model theoretically, and makes the corresponding empirical study on this problem using the data samples from the listed companies in China. The results show that, when the signal value observed by the senior managers of listed company is greater than the mean value of project quality, the level of dividend payout is negatively related to the senior managers’ overconfident psychological preference, and when the signal value observed by the senior managers of listed companies is less than the mean value of project quality, the level of dividend payout is positively related to the senior managers’ overconfident psychological preference. The level of dividend payout is higher in firms managed by overconfident senior managers under the stock market conditions of our country.