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Application of Path Analysis and PLSR to Forecast the Energy Resource Demand in China |
GUO Ju-E, CHAI Jian, LV Zhen-Dong |
Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an,China |
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Abstract China's energy resource demands were forecast and analyzed by a sort of bran-new way. The factors influencing the energy demand were found by reviewing the literature. The direct, indirect relation and the total influence between each correlated factor and the energy demand were measured using path analysis based on the data of 1985~2005 statistic of China. Results indicate that the main factors that infect the energy demand are the economic increase, the total population and the structure of the primary energy consumption. Secondly, we use the PLSR (partial least squares regression) to eliminate the multicollin earity and have a transverse forecast of the energy demand based on the information on the main effected factors. The validity and practicability of this approach are also explained
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Received: 16 July 2008
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