管理学报
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J4  2015, Vol. 12 Issue (2): 284-    DOI:
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DecisionMaking Model of Credit Sale Based on the Estimated Probability of Business Opportunity
SUN Qingwen,LIU Xin,LUAN Xiaohui
Hebei University of Economics and Business, Shijiazhuang, China

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Abstract  This study made a good use of the Weibull function to effectively describe the characteristics of the customer lifetime changes for products sold on account and made a dynamic estimation on the probability of the existing business opportunities. In addition, it constructed the dynamic decisionmaking model by means of relevant revenueestimating methods and decisionmaking rules, which helps enterprises make optimal decisions for different types of customers subject to limited times. The opportunityestimating model effectively overcomes the defects such as high complexity of calculation and poor adaptability, when SMC model fits the lifetime characteristics of the customers by exponential function and Gamma function. 
Key wordsdynamic decisionmaking model      revenue estimation of credit sale      business opportunities      customer lifetime     
Received: 06 May 2013     
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