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| The Evolution of China’s Passenger Automobile Industry under the Influence of the Dual-Credit Policy |
| ZHAO Pu，MA Shaochao，AN Haizhong，WANG Ya |
| 1. China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, China; 3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Equipment Industry Development Center, Beijing, China |
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Abstract Based on agent-based modeling, this study constructs a simulation model of the credit trading mechanism covering all domestic manufacturers in China’s passenger car market. It explores the policy effects on the electric vehicle market up to 2035 from a macro level. The evolution of production decisions is discussed from a micro level. The main conclusions are as follows: ①In the current development stage of China’s electric vehicles, the dual-credit policy is more conducive to increasing the market share of electric vehicles, and can replace subsidies as the primary industrial policy for electric vehicles. ②If the conditions of the dual-credit policy remain unchanged, the phased target penetration rate of electric vehicles in 2035 can be exceeded by implementing the dual-credit policy alone. ③The dual-credit policy is more conducive to accelerating the transition to electrification of large fuel car enterprises than subsidy policy. ④The credit trading mechanism will be most effective before 2030.
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Received: 11 December 2023
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