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J4  2012, Vol. 9 Issue (2): 280-    DOI:
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基于预算限制和客户挽留价值最大化的 电信客户流失挽留研究
罗彬, 邵培基, 罗尽尧, 刘独玉, 夏国恩
1. 电子科技大学经济与管理学院; 2. 电子科技大学应用数学学院; 3. 广西财经学院工商管理系
Research on Customer Churn Detainment in Telecom Based on Budget Restraint and Customer Detainment Value Maximization
 LUO Bin, SHAO Pei-Ji, LUO Jin-Yao, LIU Du-Yu, XIA Guo-En
1. University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China; 2. Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning, China

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摘要 

在分析电信行业中挽留激励效应、自然流失效应和口碑传播效应对客户保持率的动力学机理的基础上,得到客户保持率在客户挽留周期中的演进路径;接着提出了使用挽留激励系数、自然衰减系数和口碑影响系数来具体描述这3种效应的作用力。然后基于客户保持率的演进路径推导出了客户挽留周期模型和客户挽留价值模型。最后建立了2种不同类型的客户挽留模型:基于挽留激励效应建立了单个客户挽留费用模型,并推导出了单个客户挽留费用的有效范围、挽留激励的高效率区域和低效率区域;基于定义的挽留收益函数和挽留边际收益函数建立了一对一客户挽留策略模型,并推导出了在挽留预算限制条件下的客户挽留顺序选择原则。实验结果表明,所提出的电信客户挽留方法是可行且有效的。

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罗彬
邵培基
罗尽尧
刘独玉
夏国恩
关键词 挽留激励效应自然流失效应口碑传播效应单客户挽留模型    
Abstract

Firstly, after analyzing the dynamic mechanism of customer retention rate affected by the three most important effects which are the detainment excitation effect, the natural bleeding effect and the wordofmouth effect, the evolution route of customer retention rate in customer detainment cycle is obtained; secondly, three coefficients influencing customer retention rate are proposed, which describe the effects above, including detainment excitation coefficient, natural attenuation quotient and wordofmouth influence coefficient; thirdly, customer detainment cycle model and customer detainment value model are gained based on the evolution route of customer retention rate; finally, two models are established: the customer detainment cost computation model, in which the available range of the detainment cost, the high efficiency range of the detainment and the low efficiency range of the detainment are obtained; the onetoone customer churn detainment model is established based on Detainment Profit Function and Detain Marginal Profit Function defined, and the selection rules of customer detainment order are deduced based on the limitation of detainment budget. The experiments results suggest that the customer churn detainment method put forward in this paper is feasible and very efficient.

Key wordsdetainment excitation effect    natural bleeding effect    word-of-mouth communication effect    single customer detainment model   
收稿日期: 2009-10-15     
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金资助项目(70801021);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20080431276);教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(08JC630019)

通讯作者: 罗彬(1974~),男,四川渠县人。电子科技大学(成都市610054)经济与管理学院博士研究生。研究方向为数据挖掘和商务智能研究。     E-mail: luobin10000@163.com
引用本文:   
罗彬, 邵培基, 罗尽尧, 刘独玉, 夏国恩. 基于预算限制和客户挽留价值最大化的 电信客户流失挽留研究[J]. J4, 2012, 9(2): 280-. LUO Bin, SHAO Pei-Ji, LUO Jin-Yao, LIU Du-Yu, XIA Guo-En. Research on Customer Churn Detainment in Telecom Based on Budget Restraint and Customer Detainment Value Maximization. J4, 2012, 9(2): 280-.
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