Abstract：To address the uncertainty and staged nature of demand for emergency relief materials, this paper develops a two-stage stochastic programming model from the perspective of the government, building upon existing public-private joint reserve models and aiming to minimize the total reserve cost. The model incorporates the assumption that both supply and demand of materials are dependent on disaster intensity, introduces a post-disaster staged delivery mechanism, and replaces traditional shortage cost formulations with chance constraints on demand satisfaction probabilities, thereby avoiding the need for complex shortage quantification. Using historical disaster data from Beijing between 2004 and 2020, a case study is conducted to examine the applicability of option contracts in joint reserve planning. Sensitivity analyses on key parameters, such as service level probability and inventory cost, suggest that compared to conventional single-stage delivery, the staged delivery mechanism is more cost-effective and reduces supply risks.
王林，邹靖，王思睿. 基于灾害强度不确定性的应急物资期权储备模型研究[J]. 管理学报, 2025, 22(9): 1734-.
WANG Lin，ZOU Jing，WANG Sirui. Research on Emergency Material Option Reserve Model Based on Uncertainty of Disaster Intensity. Chinese Journal of Management, 2025, 22(9): 1734-.
